cyb50-quant/research/dragon/v2/dragon_research_direction_update.md

Dragon Research Direction Update

Direction Shift

• The research center of gravity is no longer workbook-style residual alignment.
• The active objective is now to formalize the stronger alpha candidate path around alpha_first_glued_refined_hot_cap.
• alpha_first_selective_veto remains the control branch.
• workbook_preserving remains the reconstruction reference branch.

Working Principles

• No more black-box micro-tuning around isolated workbook dates.
• New changes must be justified by:
  • trade-quality improvement
  • stability under small threshold perturbation
  • robustness under transaction-cost pressure
  • explainable removed-trade attribution
• Workbook overlap is now a governance cost metric, not the main optimization target.

Current Research Question

• Can alpha_first_glued_refined_hot_cap be validated strongly enough to move from governed candidate to formal alpha baseline?

Immediate Workstream

• cost stress test
• local threshold-neighborhood sensitivity
• year/regime/holding-bucket consistency review
• equity-curve and drawdown quality review
• only then consider formal promotion