Dragon Refined Edge Review

Scope

control: trades 102, win_rate 47.06%, avg_return 2.86%, profit_factor 4.04
refined: trades 91, win_rate 52.75%, avg_return 3.42%, profit_factor 5.11
refined minus control: trades -11, avg_return 0.56%, profit_factor 1.06

Refined alpha is still primarily a glued_buy story, but now with stricter removal of weak short-holding glued trades.
The branch is not winning by adding new complex trade paths; it is winning by deleting low-quality short trades while preserving the medium and long-holding winners.

glued_buy [core_alpha_family]: trades 50, share 54.95%, avg_return 4.92%, sum_return 246.25%, profit_factor 7.15, top_exit knife_take_profit_2_glued
early_crash_probe_buy [core_alpha_family]: trades 6, share 6.59%, avg_return 4.62%, sum_return 27.70%, profit_factor 10.52, top_exit knife_take_profit_2_glued
dual_gold_resonance_buy [support_alpha_family]: trades 13, share 14.29%, avg_return 1.06%, sum_return 13.72%, profit_factor 2.08, top_exit knife_take_profit_2_glued
oversold_recovery_buy [core_alpha_family]: trades 4, share 4.40%, avg_return 3.35%, sum_return 13.39%, profit_factor 6.65, top_exit knife_take_profit_2_glued
post_sell_rebound_buy [secondary_research_family]: trades 4, share 4.40%, avg_return 1.84%, sum_return 7.35%, profit_factor 2.56, top_exit negative_a1_no_b1_recovery:kdj_sell

deep_oversold_rebound_buy:deep_capitulation: trades 1, avg_return -2.05%, sum_return -2.05%, profit_factor 0.00
oversold_reversal_after_ql_buy: trades 1, avg_return -0.77%, sum_return -0.77%, profit_factor 0.00
deep_oversold_rebound_buy:positive_b1_rebound: trades 1, avg_return -0.18%, sum_return -0.18%, profit_factor 0.00
deep_oversold_rebound_buy:mixed_oversold: trades 2, avg_return 0.01%, sum_return 0.02%, profit_factor 1.01
deep_oversold_rebound_buy:shallow_false_start: trades 1, avg_return 0.12%, sum_return 0.12%, profit_factor inf

glued_buy / 41d+: winners 9, avg_return 25.57%, sum_return 230.16%
glued_buy / 11-20d: winners 10, avg_return 2.50%, sum_return 25.01%
glued_buy / 21-40d: winners 2, avg_return 12.42%, sum_return 24.84%
early_crash_probe_buy / 41d+: winners 1, avg_return 20.56%, sum_return 20.56%
dual_gold_resonance_buy / 21-40d: winners 2, avg_return 9.32%, sum_return 18.65%

positive mid_regime / glued_buy -> crash_protection_exit: trades 2, sum_return 79.18%, avg_return 39.59%, PF inf
positive mid_regime / glued_buy -> prewarning_reduction_exit: trades 2, sum_return 49.55%, avg_return 24.77%, PF inf
positive mid_regime / glued_buy -> predictive_b1_break_exit: trades 1, sum_return 36.85%, avg_return 36.85%, PF inf
positive mid_regime / glued_buy -> high_regime_confirmed_exit:kdj_sell: trades 2, sum_return 32.29%, avg_return 16.14%, PF inf
positive high_regime / glued_buy -> high_regime_momentum_break: trades 1, sum_return 32.17%, avg_return 32.17%, PF inf
positive crash_probe_regime / early_crash_probe_buy -> ql_high_zone_take_profit: trades 1, sum_return 20.56%, avg_return 20.56%, PF inf
positive low_oversold_regime / oversold_recovery_buy -> high_regime_confirmed_exit:kdj_sell: trades 1, sum_return 14.72%, avg_return 14.72%, PF inf
positive low_oversold_regime / dual_gold_resonance_buy -> prewarning_reduction_exit: trades 1, sum_return 13.29%, avg_return 13.29%, PF inf

drag low_oversold_regime / deep_oversold_rebound_buy:positive_b1_rebound -> knife_take_profit_2_glued: trades 1, sum_return -0.18%, avg_return -0.18%, PF 0.00
drag low_oversold_regime / glued_buy -> knife_take_profit_2_glued: trades 2, sum_return -0.31%, avg_return -0.16%, PF 0.69
drag rebound_after_sell_regime / post_sell_rebound_buy -> knife_take_profit_2_glued: trades 1, sum_return -0.49%, avg_return -0.49%, PF 0.00
drag rebound_after_sell_regime / oversold_reversal_after_ql_buy -> knife_take_profit_2_glued: trades 1, sum_return -0.77%, avg_return -0.77%, PF 0.00
drag crash_probe_regime / early_crash_probe_buy -> hard_exit:kdj_sell: trades 1, sum_return -0.85%, avg_return -0.85%, PF 0.00
drag high_regime / glued_buy -> knife_take_profit_2_glued: trades 1, sum_return -0.89%, avg_return -0.89%, PF 0.00
drag low_oversold_regime / deep_oversold_rebound_buy:classic_oversold -> negative_a1_no_b1_recovery:kdj_sell: trades 1, sum_return -0.92%, avg_return -0.92%, PF 0.00
drag low_oversold_regime / dual_gold_resonance_buy -> ql_mid_zone_take_profit: trades 1, sum_return -1.20%, avg_return -1.20%, PF 0.00

removed trades vs control: 11
removed-set avg_return -1.81%
removed-set win_rate 0.00%
removed-set profit_factor 0.00
KEEP_REMOVAL 11 | OBSERVE_REMOVAL 0 | OVER_REMOVAL 0
hot_positive_b1_cap75: trades 7, avg_return -1.50%, avg_holding 5.1, avg_mfe 1.40%
low_weak_range: trades 4, avg_return -2.35%, avg_holding 3.0, avg_mfe 0.96%

Core alpha remains concentrated in glued_buy, early_crash_probe_buy, and the preserved medium/long holding structure.
dual_gold_resonance_buy and deep_oversold_rebound_buy:classic_oversold remain support families, not the main alpha engine.
Weak pockets still exist in secondary rebound / weak deep-oversold variants, but they are not where the refined branch gets its headline improvement.
The refined branch improves mainly by deleting low-quality short glued trades; this remains explainable and not dependent on deleting profitable samples.
The next step should therefore move to execution-aware robustness, not back to workbook-style residual tuning.