cyb50-quant/research/dragon/v2/dragon_glued_refined_year_regime_review.md

Dragon Glued Refined Year/Regime Review

Yearly Comparison

• refined improves avg_return in 6 yearly buckets out of 11
• 2016: alpha 1.15% vs refined 1.32%, delta 0.16%
• 2017: alpha -0.42% vs refined 0.24%, delta 0.66%
• 2018: alpha 0.05% vs refined 0.16%, delta 0.11%
• 2019: alpha 3.12% vs refined 5.29%, delta 2.17%
• 2020: alpha 11.16% vs refined 11.16%, delta 0.00%
• 2021: alpha 5.35% vs refined 6.24%, delta 0.89%
• 2022: alpha 2.20% vs refined 2.20%, delta 0.00%
• 2023: alpha 1.36% vs refined 1.36%, delta 0.00%
• 2024: alpha 4.72% vs refined 5.64%, delta 0.92%
• 2025: alpha 8.42% vs refined 8.42%, delta 0.00%
• 2026: alpha -1.97% vs refined -1.97%, delta 0.00%

Regime Comparison

• refined improves avg_return in 3 regime buckets out of 4
• high_mid: alpha 6.30% vs refined 8.34%, delta 2.04%
• hot: alpha 6.29% vs refined 6.29%, delta 0.00%
• low: alpha 2.34% vs refined 2.69%, delta 0.35%
• mid: alpha 1.81% vs refined 2.30%, delta 0.49%

Holding-Bucket Comparison

• refined improves avg_return in 2 holding buckets out of 5
• 00-05d: alpha -1.72% vs refined -1.67%, delta 0.05%
• 06-10d: alpha -0.69% vs refined -0.59%, delta 0.10%
• 11-20d: alpha 1.45% vs refined 1.45%, delta 0.00%
• 21-40d: alpha 6.33% vs refined 6.33%, delta 0.00%
• 41d+: alpha 24.13% vs refined 24.13%, delta 0.00%

Entry-Family Comparison

• glued_buy: alpha 3.71% vs refined 4.92%, delta 1.21%, alpha trades 61, refined trades 50
• deep_oversold_rebound_buy:classic_oversold: alpha 0.04% vs refined 0.04%, delta 0.00%, alpha trades 5, refined trades 5
• deep_oversold_rebound_buy:mixed_oversold: alpha 0.01% vs refined 0.01%, delta 0.00%, alpha trades 2, refined trades 2
• deep_oversold_rebound_buy:positive_b1_rebound: alpha -0.18% vs refined -0.18%, delta 0.00%, alpha trades 1, refined trades 1
• deep_oversold_rebound_buy:shallow_false_start: alpha 0.12% vs refined 0.12%, delta 0.00%, alpha trades 1, refined trades 1
• deep_oversold_rebound_buy:deep_capitulation: alpha -2.05% vs refined -2.05%, delta 0.00%, alpha trades 1, refined trades 1
• dual_gold_resonance_buy: alpha 0.84% vs refined 0.84%, delta 0.00%, alpha trades 14, refined trades 14
• early_crash_probe_buy: alpha 4.62% vs refined 4.62%, delta 0.00%, alpha trades 6, refined trades 6

Quant Judgment

• This review checks whether improvement is broad-based or concentrated in a narrow slice of the sample.
• If refined mainly wins through short-holding cleanup while not damaging medium and long holding buckets, the branch is behaving as intended.