cyb50-quant/research/chinext50_regime_project/deliverables/regime_lite_promotion_decision_2026-04-24.md

Regime Lite Promotion Decision (2026-04-24)

• change: adaptive-hold-promotion-evaluation
• input PIT: outputs/ingestion_derived_full50_20260409_v2/pit/chinext50_pit.csv
• discovery window: 2020-01-02 to 2024-09-09 (1138 rows)
• validation window: 2024-09-10 to 2026-04-09 (379 rows)
• recommendation candidate: combo_fast_hold3
• promotion status vs baseline: promote
• current promoted reference: promoted_fast_entry_hold3
• adaptive replace conclusion: adaptive-replace-candidate
• final preferred profile action: replace_current_promoted
• final preferred runtime profile: promoted_fast_entry_adaptive_extend
• final preferred variant: combo_fast_adaptive_extend

Adaptive replace delta vs current promoted reference:

• annual_return: +0.001646
• max_drawdown: +0.000000
• annual_turnover: +0.000000
• avg_days_to_reach_exposure_after_trend_entry: +0.000000

Bounded runtime verification on final preferred profile:

• runtime profile: promoted_fast_entry_adaptive_extend
• rollback/reference profile: baseline
• runtime health: healthy
• runtime recommended action: continue
• post-promotion review: recommend_rollback

Operator conclusion:

• The old preferred profile promoted_fast_entry_hold3 is replaced by promoted_fast_entry_adaptive_extend in the bounded promotion closure.
• Keep baseline available as the rollback-safe reference profile.
• Governance handoff target after promotion closure: run promoted_fast_entry_adaptive_extend, then inspect regime_lite_runtime_health.json and regime_lite_post_promotion_review.json before any operator action.
• If runtime health stays healthy and post-promotion review stays keep_promoted, continue normal lite operation.
• If runtime health moves to review / hold or post-promotion review moves to hold_and_review, pause and inspect the bounded reasons before changing anything.
• If runtime health reaches rollback_recommended or post-promotion review reaches recommend_rollback, revert to baseline for rollback-safe operation.
• Do not add new variants or reopen broad lite timing/overlay tuning from this closure step.