## 2026-04-11

- User asked to continue autonomously after the lean Phase 2 result.
- Follow-up work stayed narrow and only targeted the remaining promising lane:
- `mid_zone_very_weak_b1`
- goal: test whether the current problem is early exit treatment after followthrough reentry

- Implemented new OpenSpec change:
- `openspec/changes/followthrough-mid-exit-shadow-probe/`
- Added:
- `dragon_glued_followthrough_exit.py`
- `dragon_followthrough_mid_exit_review.py`
- `tests/test_followthrough_mid_exit_probe.py`
- `openspec/changes/followthrough-mid-exit-shadow-probe/acceptance-summary.md`

- Strategy change is shadow-only:
- new config gates in `dragon_strategy_config.py` are default-off
- new branch config `alpha_first_glued_followthrough_mid_exit_probe_config()` lives in `dragon_branch_configs.py`
- `dragon_strategy.py` now has a branch-gated hold for:
- entry code `entry_glued_followthrough_reentry`
- `kdj_sell=True`
- `ql_sell=False`
- early holding window
- mild positive repair state
- this prevents immediate `knife_take_profit_2_glued` only in the new shadow branch

- Added the new branch to `dragon_daily_signal_pipeline.py` so it is visible in daily and forward observation outputs.

- Historical result from the new branch:
- original mid probe:
- `2020-12-01 -> 2020-12-09`
- sell reason `knife_take_profit_2_glued`
- return `-0.24%`
- new mid exit probe:
- `2020-12-01 -> 2021-02-19`
- sell reason `high_regime_confirmed_exit:kdj_sell`
- holding `80` days
- return `+26.65%`

- Trade-path difference versus the old mid probe:
- removed:
- `2020-12-01 -> 2020-12-09` followthrough reentry loss
- `2020-12-15 -> 2021-02-19` later glued re-buy
- added:
- one merged trend trade `2020-12-01 -> 2021-02-19`
- interpretation:
- the repaired trend was real
- the old branch was cutting it too early and then buying back later

- Review artifact conclusions from `dragon_followthrough_mid_exit_review.md`:
- same_close compounded return:
- base `1424.12%`
- mid_probe `1420.41%`
- mid_exit_probe `1460.02%`
- next_open compounded return:
- base `1295.54%`
- mid_probe `1288.52%`
- mid_exit_probe `1332.91%`
- this makes `alpha_first_glued_followthrough_mid_exit_probe` the only currently promising shadow extension worth monitoring
- but promotion is still not justified because the evidence is still one repaired-trend path

- Validation:
- `py -3 -m py_compile dragon_glued_followthrough_exit.py dragon_followthrough_mid_exit_review.py tests/test_followthrough_mid_exit_probe.py dragon_daily_signal_pipeline.py`
- `py -3 -m unittest tests.test_followthrough_mid_exit_probe -v`
- `py -3 dragon_followthrough_mid_exit_review.py`
- `py -3 -m unittest discover -s tests -v` -> `26` tests passed
- `py -3 dragon_daily_signal_pipeline.py` passed
- `py -3 dragon_forward_observation_pipeline.py` passed

- Also fixed a weekend-sensitive test failure unrelated to the strategy logic:
- updated `tests/test_data_fetcher_tday_cache.py` to use an effective business day when testing snapshot-merge writeback
- this keeps the full suite green even when current date falls on a weekend