# Dragon Strategy Overview

- Evaluation window: `2016-01-01` to `2025-12-31`.
- Return metrics use compounded trade returns without extra slippage/fee adjustments.

## Headline Table
### workbook_preserving
- Role: `official reconstruction baseline`
- Style: `most like workbook`
- Trades: `106`
- Win rate: `45.28%`
- Avg / Median trade: `2.57%` / `-0.59%`
- Profit factor: `3.37`
- Compounded return: `923.08%`
- CAGR: `26.18%`
- Real BUY / SELL overlap: `105/105`
- Short `00-05d` / `06-10d`: `-2.03%` / `-0.81%`
- Suitable for: 适合优先保留原表结构

### alpha_first_selective_veto
- Role: `current formal alpha branch`
- Style: `balanced`
- Trades: `102`
- Win rate: `47.06%`
- Avg / Median trade: `2.86%` / `-0.38%`
- Profit factor: `4.04`
- Compounded return: `1146.08%`
- CAGR: `28.70%`
- Real BUY / SELL overlap: `101/101`
- Short `00-05d` / `06-10d`: `-1.72%` / `-0.69%`
- Suitable for: 适合兼顾原表和收益质量

### alpha_first_glued_refined_hot_cap
- Role: `leading high-alpha candidate`
- Style: `most aggressive`
- Trades: `91`
- Win rate: `52.75%`
- Avg / Median trade: `3.42%` / `0.25%`
- Profit factor: `5.11`
- Compounded return: `1424.12%`
- CAGR: `31.32%`
- Real BUY / SELL overlap: `90/90`
- Short `00-05d` / `06-10d`: `-1.67%` / `-0.59%`
- Suitable for: 适合更偏实战 alpha

## Quick Read
- If you want the version most like the workbook, use `workbook_preserving`: CAGR `26.18%`, overlap `105/105`.
- If you want the balanced version, use `alpha_first_selective_veto`: CAGR `28.70%`, profit factor `4.04`, overlap `101/101`.
- If you want the strongest alpha candidate, use `alpha_first_glued_refined_hot_cap`: CAGR `31.32%`, profit factor `5.11`, overlap `90/90`.

## Quant Take
- `alpha_first_selective_veto` vs workbook: CAGR `+2.51%`, profit factor `+0.68`, BUY/SELL overlap delta `-4/-4`.
- `alpha_first_glued_refined_hot_cap` vs current alpha: CAGR `+2.62%`, profit factor `+1.06`, BUY/SELL overlap delta `-11/-11`.
- Operationally, the refined branch is the best-performing candidate, but the current formal alpha branch remains the governance default because it gives up fewer workbook-aligned dates.