# Dragon Short Holding Review

- Branch: `alpha_first_selective_veto`.
- Scope: only `00-05d` and `06-10d` trades.
- audited short trades: `61`
- `00-05d` avg_return: `-1.72%`
- `06-10d` avg_return: `-0.69%`

## Failure Root Summary
- `00-05d / entry_bad / immediate_failure`: trades `23`, avg_return `-1.78%`, avg_mfe `0.76%`, avg_mae `-2.33%`
- `00-05d / hold_bad / small_profit_reversal`: trades `3`, avg_return `-1.54%`, avg_mfe `2.10%`, avg_mae `-1.57%`
- `00-05d / hold_bad / rebound_then_fail`: trades `1`, avg_return `-0.85%`, avg_mfe `3.43%`, avg_mae `-4.59%`
- `06-10d / hold_bad / small_profit_reversal`: trades `13`, avg_return `-2.11%`, avg_mfe `1.29%`, avg_mae `-3.09%`
- `06-10d / mixed / flat_noise`: trades `9`, avg_return `0.90%`, avg_mfe `3.73%`, avg_mae `-2.48%`
- `06-10d / hold_bad / rebound_then_fail`: trades `6`, avg_return `-0.81%`, avg_mfe `4.73%`, avg_mae `-3.11%`
- `06-10d / exit_too_fast / exit_too_early`: trades `6`, avg_return `0.11%`, avg_mfe `4.17%`, avg_mae `-2.81%`

## Weak Entry Families
- `00-05d / post_washout_kdj_reentry_buy`: trades `1`, win_rate `0.00%`, avg_return `-2.86%`, avg_mfe `1.33%`, avg_mae `-3.55%`
- `00-05d / dual_gold_resonance_buy`: trades `3`, win_rate `0.00%`, avg_return `-2.40%`, avg_mfe `0.40%`, avg_mae `-3.16%`
- `00-05d / post_sell_rebound_buy`: trades `1`, win_rate `0.00%`, avg_return `-2.16%`, avg_mfe `0.10%`, avg_mae `-3.04%`
- `00-05d / glued_buy`: trades `18`, win_rate `0.00%`, avg_return `-1.65%`, avg_mfe `0.93%`, avg_mae `-2.08%`
- `00-05d / deep_oversold_rebound_buy`: trades `2`, win_rate `0.00%`, avg_return `-1.49%`, avg_mfe `1.67%`, avg_mae `-1.57%`
- `06-10d / glued_buy`: trades `20`, win_rate `35.00%`, avg_return `-1.03%`, avg_mfe `2.37%`, avg_mae `-2.58%`
- `06-10d / oversold_reversal_after_ql_buy`: trades `1`, win_rate `0.00%`, avg_return `-0.77%`, avg_mfe `6.09%`, avg_mae `-0.77%`
- `06-10d / post_sell_rebound_buy`: trades `1`, win_rate `0.00%`, avg_return `-0.49%`, avg_mfe `2.67%`, avg_mae `-1.36%`
- `06-10d / oversold_recovery_buy`: trades `2`, win_rate `50.00%`, avg_return `-0.37%`, avg_mfe `3.64%`, avg_mae `-3.52%`
- `06-10d / early_crash_probe_buy`: trades `2`, win_rate `50.00%`, avg_return `-0.25%`, avg_mfe `3.60%`, avg_mae `-4.03%`

## Quant Judgment
- Deep-oversold short trades: `5`; post-sell-rebound short trades: `2`; bridge trades: `0`.
- Root split: entry_bad `23`, hold_bad `23`, exit_too_fast `6`.
- The next experiment pack should prioritize the dominant drag family and separate bad-entry veto from early-exit extension.