# Dragon Glued Refined Branch Review

## Branches
- `workbook_preserving`: official reconstruction baseline.
- `alpha_first_selective_veto`: current formal alpha-first branch.
- `alpha_first_glued_refined_hot_cap`: refined glued research candidate with `40 <= c1 < 75`, `b1 >= 0.10`, plus intact low weak-range veto.

## Headline Comparison
- workbook_preserving: trades `106`, avg_return `2.57%`, profit_factor `3.37`, real BUY / SELL `105/105`
- alpha_first_selective_veto: trades `102`, avg_return `2.86%`, profit_factor `4.04`, real BUY / SELL `101/101`
- alpha_first_glued_refined_hot_cap: trades `91`, avg_return `3.42%`, profit_factor `5.11`, real BUY / SELL `90/90`

## Trade Quality
- avg MFE / MAE: alpha `6.93%` / `-2.57%` vs refined `7.62%` / `-2.57%`
- short bucket `00-05d`: alpha `-1.72%` vs refined `-1.67%`
- short bucket `06-10d`: alpha `-0.69%` vs refined `-0.59%`

## Walk-Forward Comparison
- Anchored expanding: alpha `8/9`, avg `4.00%` vs refined `9/9`, avg `4.52%`
- Rolling 3Y: alpha `7/7`, avg `5.19%` vs refined `7/7`, avg `5.76%`

## Trade-Diff Summary
- refined vs alpha-first: removed `11`, added `0`
- The refined branch is still a removal-driven candidate; improvement comes from deleting weak trades, not from adding a new complex trade tree.

## Stability Read
- refined beats alpha on avg_return in `6` yearly buckets out of `10` overlapping sell years
- avg_return delta vs alpha: `0.56%`
- profit_factor delta vs alpha: `1.06`
- overlap delta vs alpha: BUY `-11` / SELL `-11`

## Governance Judgment
- Upgrade gate status: `PASS` on headline quality and walk-forward thresholds
- The refined branch is stronger than the current alpha-first baseline and stronger than the older full glued candidate.
- The remaining blocker is governance: overlap loss is still large enough that promotion should be explicit rather than silent.
- Recommended status: keep `alpha_first_selective_veto` as formal baseline; mark `alpha_first_glued_refined_hot_cap` as the leading next alpha-first candidate.