# Dragon Glued Refine Experiments

- Baseline branch: `alpha_first_selective_veto`.
- Goal: verify whether the hot glued veto can be narrowed after attribution without giving back too much trade quality.

## Summary
- `baseline_alpha_first`: trades `103`, avg_return `2.81%`, profit_factor `3.96`, short_avg_return `-1.15%`, `00-05d` `-1.72%`, `06-10d` `-0.69%`, real BUY / SELL `102/101`
- `glued_veto_low_weak_range`: trades `99`, avg_return `3.02%`, profit_factor `4.38`, short_avg_return `-1.06%`, `00-05d` `-1.61%`, `06-10d` `-0.69%`, real BUY / SELL `98/97`
- `glued_veto_hot_and_low`: trades `92`, avg_return `3.35%`, profit_factor `4.95`, short_avg_return `-0.99%`, `00-05d` `-1.67%`, `06-10d` `-0.58%`, real BUY / SELL `90/89`
- `glued_veto_hot_cap75_and_low`: trades `92`, avg_return `3.36%`, profit_factor `4.98`, short_avg_return `-1.00%`, `00-05d` `-1.67%`, `06-10d` `-0.59%`, real BUY / SELL `91/90`

## Delta Vs Alpha-First Baseline
- `glued_veto_low_weak_range`: delta_avg_return `0.21%`, delta_profit_factor `0.42`, delta_short_avg_return `0.08%`, real BUY / SELL `98/97`
- `glued_veto_hot_and_low`: delta_avg_return `0.54%`, delta_profit_factor `0.98`, delta_short_avg_return `0.16%`, real BUY / SELL `90/89`
- `glued_veto_hot_cap75_and_low`: delta_avg_return `0.55%`, delta_profit_factor `1.02`, delta_short_avg_return `0.15%`, real BUY / SELL `91/90`

## Quant Judgment
- `glued_veto_low_weak_range` is the clean conservative upgrade candidate if governance still prioritizes overlap preservation.
- `glued_veto_hot_and_low` remains the strongest quality-improvement branch but may still be too aggressive on overlap.
- `glued_veto_hot_cap75_and_low` specifically tests whether the only super-hot positive sample can be restored without giving back too much of the glued cleanup benefit.
- Current result is stronger than expected: `glued_veto_hot_cap75_and_low` dominates the old full glued candidate on both quality and overlap.
- Refined-vs-full trade diff is minimal and interpretable: it restores `2021-11-05 -> 2021-11-18` and removes the fallback reroute `2021-11-22 -> 2021-11-30`.
- Candidate snapshot file: `dragon_glued_refined_candidate_config.json`.