# Dragon Deep Oversold Confirmation Experiments

- Goal: test an alpha-first branch for weak deep-oversold subtypes by replacing immediate entry with QL confirmation inside a short waiting window.
- Scope: only `positive_b1_rebound` and `shallow_false_start`; default baseline behavior remains unchanged.

## Summary
- `baseline`: trades `107`, avg_return `2.52%`, profit_factor `3.31`, real BUY `106`, real SELL `105`, deep weak trades `5`, confirmed deep trades `0`
- `confirm_weak_with_ql_1bar`: trades `104`, avg_return `2.67%`, profit_factor `3.56`, real BUY `101`, real SELL `102`, deep weak trades `2`, confirmed deep trades `2`
- `confirm_weak_with_ql_2bar`: trades `104`, avg_return `2.67%`, profit_factor `3.56`, real BUY `101`, real SELL `102`, deep weak trades `2`, confirmed deep trades `2`
- `confirm_weak_with_ql_3bar`: trades `103`, avg_return `2.73%`, profit_factor `3.66`, real BUY `101`, real SELL `101`, deep weak trades `1`, confirmed deep trades `1`

## Delta Vs Baseline
- `confirm_weak_with_ql_1bar`: delta_avg_return `0.15%`, delta_profit_factor `0.25`, delta_deep_weak_avg_return `-0.15%`, real BUY `101`, real SELL `102`
- `confirm_weak_with_ql_2bar`: delta_avg_return `0.15%`, delta_profit_factor `0.25`, delta_deep_weak_avg_return `-0.15%`, real BUY `101`, real SELL `102`
- `confirm_weak_with_ql_3bar`: delta_avg_return `0.21%`, delta_profit_factor `0.35`, delta_deep_weak_avg_return `0.11%`, real BUY `101`, real SELL `101`

## Quant Judgment
- Best alpha-first branch in this pack: `confirm_weak_with_ql_3bar` with avg_return `2.73%` and profit_factor `3.66`.
- This pack is expected to lose workbook date alignment because entries are delayed by confirmation; treat it as a research branch, not a baseline patch.
- If the best branch improves weak-subtype trade quality materially, the next step should be to audit shifted dates trade-by-trade rather than porting it directly into the baseline.